Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Range Quantification

For variables that have an Epistemic Uncertainty [1], the magnitude of the uncertainty (Uncertainty Range and Shape) can be elucidated by interviewing the Knowledge holders about their knowledge.

The Application is a Thinking Tool that helps in Quantifying the Uncertainty Distribution of values through an exploration of the belief system of the Knowledge holders. It is a Stand-Alone Application that runs on PC’s with the Windows Operating System.

This uncertainty range of variables can be of significant importance for decision making under uncertainty and is also an essential ingredient for probabilistic simulations (MonteCarlo simulations).

 

[1] Epistemic Uncertainties are uncertainties of variables that could in principle at some time be known precisely, but which are not known precisely at the current moment. This may be because the variable has not been measured with sufficient accuracy or because the actual value will only be known more precisely at a future moment.

You can Install the Freeware here.

User Interface

The User Interface of the Application consists of two parts, 1) The Application Form and 2) the Database Functionality to store Evaluations.

The Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification Form, consists of a Navigation Panel (located at the top strip of the tool) and Six Evaluation Methods Tabs, located below the navigation Panel. 

Uncertainty Range Quantification.JPG

Six elucidation methods are implemented:

  1. Min-Max Method

  2. Three-Point Method

  3. Larger-Smaller Method

  4. Closer Method

  5. Binned Method

  6. Combined Method

LEARNING RESOURCES

If you would like to learn about the background,check out the Virtual Learning Bites 'Range assessment' offered by NavIncerta or the online course Risk Quantification.