Risking Oracle

The Risking Oracle uses an Evidence Based method for the risk assessment of Conventional Exploration Opportunities. It is a Stand-Alone Application that runs on PC’s with the Windows Operating System.

The tool uses a number of questions (57 in total) that are related to the geological context of the opportunity. It uses a Bayesian logic combined with a Weakest-Link logic to translate the answers to these questions into probabilities.

The tool is designed to

Force Geological Thinking and make relative risking explicit.
Address the entire Petroleum System.
Use a Consistent and auditable methodology.
Give relative Opportunity ranking
Calculate chance-factors of each opportunity
Be straightforward and easy to use.
Generate data that can be analysed in a Portfolio and Play context.

A Portfolio Database is used to store and retrieve data. This database is an Excel Spreadsheet, the advantage of this design is that the user can:

Edit/analyze/visualize etcetera the data-records using standard Excel tools.
Add information to the data-records that are not standard in the Risking Oracle.
Link the Excel-Table to GIS-software for spatial analysis of input and output data.

User Interface

The User Interface of the Risking Oracle consists of two parts:

The Risking Oracle Form, which gives access to all the utilities that involve the risk assessment,
The Excel Portfolio Database, which is used to manage a database where you can save, edit and retrieve Risk Evaluations.

The Form consists of a Navigation Panel (located at the top strip of the tool) and five data input and output panels, located below the navigation panel.