INSTALL FREEWARE

Bayesian Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Working with Competing Working Hypotheses is a very powerful Thinking Tool to analyze the possible explanations of our reality and to explore the evidence that supports and/or refutes these explanations. Bayesian Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is a structured approach to investigate multiple Hypotheses. It will bring understanding in the relevance of the evidence and will give an indication of the relative likelihood of each hypothesis.

As a general principle, it is important to look for evidence that discriminates between hypotheses. It is especially important to look for evidence that can falsify a hypothesis (Karl Popper). Falsification is a more powerful discrimination tool than confirmation.

The goal of this Thinking Tool is to get a deeper understanding of the range of possible explanations of reality and of the evidence that supports/refutes these world views. The resulting probabilities assigned to each Hypothesis are a reflection of that understanding (and not the main objective of the exercise).

This application builds on the work of Heuser, who developed the non-Bayesian version of the “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” methodology in the 1970th.

An example of the application of the tool can be find here (related to Covid conspiracies theories)

You can Install the Freeware here.

User Interface

The User Interface of the Application consists of two parts, 1) The Application Form and 2) the Database Functionality to store Evaluations.

The Bayesian Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Form, consists of a Navigation Panel (located at the top strip of the tool) and the Evaluation Panel, located below the navigation Panel. The method consist of Matching Evidence against each Hypothesis and evaluate the effect of the Evidence on the Likelihood of the Hypotheses.