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Bayesian Calculator

The Bayesian Calculation provides a powerful method that helps us understand the effect of new information on the probability of propositions. The new information comes in general from Test-Results and/or additional Observations.

The calculation transforms Prior Probabilities (probabilities before the new information were taken into account), into Posterior Probabilities (probabilities given the obtained new information).

This calculator consists of three independent modules:

1) Likelihood Ratio Calibration

This module generates calibrated Likelihood Ratios, Sensitivity and Specificity from look-back data (that is presented in a matrix of True-Positive, True-Negative, False-Positive and False-Negative). Using this calibrated data a Prior Probability can be transformed in a Posterior Probability

2) Bayesian Update

This module updates a Prior Probability in a Posterior Probability by specifying the Sensitivity and Specificity of the new information.

3) Hypothesis / Scenario Testing

This module updates a Prior Probability in a Posterior Probability of multiple hypotheses by specifying the conditional probabilities of the Test-Results  (conditional given that a particular Hypothesis is True).

You can Install the Freeware here.

User Interface

The User Interface of the Application consists of two parts, 1) The Application Form and 2) the Database Functionality to store Evaluations.

The Bayesian Calculator Form, consists of a Navigation Panel (located at the top strip of the tool) and the Three Bayesian Modules, located below the navigation Panel..